By Marcel Okeke
These days, the media space in Nigeria is saturated with economic
statistics showing that the country has literally arrived at its
Eldorado, economically. Surprisingly, the figures being flaunted are
given to portray a lot of intertemporal comparisons, showing that the
current situation is the best in several years.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is hyping that the country’s stock of
external reserves has hit a whopping $50.10 billion—announcing that
the amount is the highest in the past 17 years. At the same time, the
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has been ‘parading’ the quantum leap
in the country’s capital importation: from only $5.64 billion in the
first quarter 2025 to $10.37 billion in the first quarter 2026—the
highest quarterly jump in recent years, according to the NBS.
Some statistics are also pouring out into public space showing
significant increases in total exports; and hence, huge trade surpluses.
Specifically, NBS’ published data show that while the country’s total
export was N20.59 trillion in the first quarter last year, it shot up to
N21.16 trillion in the first quarter this year. And while the country’s
trade surplus was N5.17 trillion in the first quarter 2025, the figure
rose to N7.50 trillion in the same period this year.
In this celebration of statistics—or ‘statistical success’—even the
country’s imports were shown to have declined: from N16.64 trillion in
the first quarter last year to N13.61 trillion same period this year.
Figures are also being ‘paraded’ showing rising volumes of the country’s
crude oil production/exports, as well as increasing (Federal) revenue
generation courtesy of the new tax laws that recently came into effect.
Unfortunately, with all these seemingly heartening statistics, it is
getting increasingly difficult to definitively pinpoint the positive
impact of the much-advertised reforms of the Federal Government of
Nigeria (FGN) on the people and the polity. Truly, economic policies
that make peoples’ quality of life deteriorate, are indeed punishment to
them. The so-called long-run, when Nigerians would be ‘enjoying’, does
not exist. This is because “in the long run, we are all dead,” according
to the renowned Economics Nobel laureate, John Maynard Keynes.
This father of the popular “Keynesian Economics” insists that, if you
keep saying “wait for the long run” while people are suffering
unemployment and economic collapse today, that is not a helpful policy.
“We have to deal with the short run problems now, because in the long
run we will all be dead anyway,” the eminent British Economist posits.
“Economics is about real people suffering now, not just abstract models
later,” he summed up.
For umpteenth time, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his top officials
have told Nigerians to keep tightening their belts, in the hope that the
economy would soon be turned around. Now, three years and more, all that
is being paraded and celebrated are statistics. The impoverishment of
the people; their sufferings and hardship are literally being swept
under the carpet. The front burner has been take over by politicking and
political gerrymandering.
The statistics being churned out by the FGN and its agencies could at
best be proof of economic growth without economic development. The huge
capital importation figure being bandied about, for instance, is merely
a policy-driven outcome—to the detriment of real sector operators in
the country. As the foreign portfolio investment (FPI) is ballooning,
foreign direct investment (FDI) is practically drying up in the country.
While FPI accounted for over 95 per cent of the capital importation into
Nigeria in the first quarter this year, FDI was tending towards zero.
Apparently egged on by propagandist tendencies, agents of the powers
that be keep on presenting a picture to show that it is already ‘Uhuru’
for Nigeria, economically. In point of fact, as the total capital
importation into Nigeria was ballooning, foreign investment into the
country’s production and manufacturing sector declined sharply by 50.70
per cent quarter-on-quarter to $152.27 million in the first quarter
2026, down from $308.93 million in the last quarter 2025, as gleaned
from the NBS data.
Further analysis of the figures shows that the sector accounted for only
1.47 per cent of the total capital importation valued at $10.37 billion
recorded during the review period. This vividly highlights the stifling
of the productive segment of the economy through tight monetary and very
high interest regime sustained by the CBN in the past three years.
Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), among
other multilateral financial institutions have been flagging the growing
poverty level in Nigeria, even as the country continued with its reform
experiments. Specifically, the World Bank in its recent ‘Nigeria
Development Update’ reported that poverty in Nigeria has surged to an
estimated 63 per cent of the population, affecting roughly 140 million
people.
The global lender said “despite macroeconomic improvements and
moderating inflation, deep structural challenges and recent policy
adjustments continue to exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis for
millions of the citizens.” The Bank further raised concerns that
multidimensional poverty and weak early childhood development outcomes
“are threatening Nigeria’s long-term economic potential.”
While the statistics being paraded and celebrated by the FGN and its
agencies amounts to self-glorification, it is high time the powers that
be began to closely consider the plight and wellbeing of the people
seriously. The real measure here, the Human Development Index, HDI,
asks: “Is the economy serving people, or are people serving the
economy?”
After three years of fuel subsidy removal, a core policy of the FGN,
what has become of the price of the commodity today? Price of premium
motor spirit (PMS) has moved from below N200 per liter in May 2023 to
about N1350 as of today. Escalating price of airplane fuel (Jet-A1) has
attained a crisis point: cancellation of scheduled flights, and
demonstrations at some airports in the country by stakeholders. What
about cooking gas? Many households are now resorting to using charcoal
and firewood. The price of the commodity has gone through the rooftop,
and beyond the reach of most Nigerians.
The so-called war against inflation being waged by the CBN in managing
the general price levels in the economy appears to have been lost. Both
core and food inflation have kept the upwards trajectory—weakening the
purchasing power of the citizenry indeterminately. Truly, the high and
rising inflationary trend remains in place, impoverishing people in
millions, as warned by the IMF and World Bank.
This is why the national minimum wage deal of N70000 truck by the powers
that be, and the Organized Labor has remained “dead on arrival.” The
worth of the wage amounted to a shattering of the standard of living of
the earners: whether expressed in FX terms or inflation-deflated terms.
As of 2023, the extant minimum wage of N30,000 was worth about $65 (at
N450/$); but the current minimum wage of N70,000 is worth about only
$52, in line with the ruling exchange rate of N1350/$. Where lies the
wellbeing of the wage earner?
While the CBN is celebrating the ballooning external reserves, the
underlining policy of tight monetary stance is stifling a lot of real
sector operators. Also, while the ‘surging’ FPI is being hyped and
deployed in moderating the Naira value at the foreign exchange (FX)
market, owners of FDI are literally turning their backs on Nigeria. This
pattern needs to be changed; and Nigeria will attract “patient money”
for real development. The current statistics being celebrated do not
portray any positive impacts of the FGN’s reforms on the people. A word
is enough for the wise!
· The author, Okeke, a practicing Economist, Business Strategist,
Sustainability expert and ex-Chief Economist of Zenith Bank Plc, lives
in Lekki, Lagos. He can be reached via:
obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com (08033075697) SMS only
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The author, Okeke, a practicing Economist, Business Strategist, Sustainability expert and ex-Chief Economist of Zenith Bank Plc, lives in Lekki, Lagos. He can be reached via: obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com (08033075697) SMS only
