By Mohammed Bello Doka
There is a cold rage spreading across Nigeria’s political landscape. It is the fury of a lion that helped build the zoo, only to find himself caged inside it. Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna State and one of the chief architects of the All Progressives Congress (APC) victory in 2023, is currently trapped between the cells of the EFCC and the ICPC. His alleged crime is not just corruption; it is the unforgivable sin of outliving his usefulness to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. And if history teaches us anything, it is that a betrayed architect is the most dangerous enemy a government can have.
To understand why 2027 will be a nightmare for President Tinubu, one must revisit the strange role played by Professor Ishaq Akintola, the leader of the Muslim Rights Concern (MURIC). In a striking revelation, El-Rufai himself once confessed that he was not originally on good terms with Tinubu; they were, in his own words, “fighting.” It was Professor Akintola who reportedly came with other leaders from Lagos to commend the northern governors for deciding that a southerner should emerge as president. Akintola and his delegation then pleaded with El-Rufai to support Tinubu, urging him to reconcile with the President despite their political differences. This backstory is crucial because it establishes that El-Rufai did not support Tinubu out of ambition but out of persuasion from respected southern Muslim leaders.
El-Rufai was instrumental in the power shift that brought Tinubu to the throne. At a time when the northern political establishment believed power was their birthright, he led the charge of twelve northern governors insisting that the presidency must shift to the South. He went to Chatham House and defended the Muslim-Muslim ticket. He lobbied his colleagues. He did all of this not as a subordinate but as a partner. The world watched as Tinubu stood on a stage in Kaduna, publicly begging El-Rufai not to retire, insisting that he must serve in his government. It was a moment of mutual respect that now reads like a prophecy of betrayal.
The betrayal, when it came, was swift and brutal. Despite being the engine of the campaign, El-Rufai’s ministerial nomination was sensationally withheld by the Senate following a security report from the Department of State Services (DSS). It was a public castration. The man who fought for the Muslim North was humiliated by a Yoruba-centric kitchen cabinet that felt threatened by his competence. MURIC warned at the time that the non-confirmation was a major threat to the future alliance between the North and the South-West, adding that the North may never hobnob with the South-West again if the champion of their alliance is shabbily treated.
Today, that political lynching has transitioned into a physical nightmare. El-Rufai has spent over 100 days in detention, tossed between the EFCC and the ICPC. His family has repeatedly raised the alarm that he is being denied access to his doctors despite a valid court order granting him medical access. His wife was reportedly turned away for trying to deliver an evening meal because of an arbitrary curfew. When a government is so scared of a political opponent that it denies him food and medicine, it is not demonstrating strength; it is exposing its own terror.
But here is the critical error that President Tinubu and his strategists have made. They have miscalculated the mood of the nation. Nigeria today is bleeding. The #Endbadgovernance movement has mobilized nationwide protests over hunger and the removal of fuel subsidies. Insecurity is rampant, with dozens massacred in Plateau, Kaduna, and Benue states while the President speaks from the safety of an airport. The people are angry, and angry populations listen to charismatic opposition leaders.
By creating a martyr out of El-Rufai, Tinubu is handing a weapon to the North. Political suppression has a history of backfiring spectacularly in Nigeria. We saw it with MKO Abiola, whose detention and subsequent death turned him into a messianic figure that destroyed the military regime. We saw it in the Southwest, where the persecution of Rauf Aregbesola turned him into an opposition firebrand seeking redemption.
If El-Rufai is allowed to rot or, God forbid, dies in that detention cell from lack of medical care, Tinubu will not only lose the 2027 election; he will unleash a storm that might tear the country apart. The Muslim North will see it as a declaration of war by a Yoruba-centric government. The Constitution guarantees the right to liberty and healthcare under Sections 35 and 41. The courts have spoken. The government must obey. Let El-Rufai live to face his trial. Because if he falls, he will not just be a fallen politician; he will be the nemesis who haunts Tinubu and his socio political establishment forever.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via bellodoka82@gmail.com
