By Marcel Okeke
These are really uncertain times for all nations of the world; the emergence of Mr. Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States of America a year ago, and his pronouncements and Presidential Orders at his inauguration marked the beginning of a New World Economic Order (NWEO). In place of globalization, Trump has been championing extreme nationalism; in place of multilateralism, he has been pushing for unilateralism: leading to the collapse of hitherto established trade relations and flows. In place of long-standing harmonious trade relations, President Trump has introduced tariff wars that have been redefining global trade flows for upwards of a year now. Practically no country is spared the direct or indirect effect of the raging trade wars. Propelled by his mantra: ‘America First,’ the U.S. President has gone ahead to terminate his America’s membership of a number of the United Nations (UN) agencies, and ceased subscriptions and financial support. At the last count, there were 66 of them, including WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, UNCTAD, etc. Specifically, under what President Trump termed reciprocal tariff, the U.S. has hiked tariff rate against Nigerian goods being exported to the United States. Effective August 7, 2025, Nigeria’s exports to the U.S. has been attracting a 15 percent tariff, following the signing of a July 31 Executive Order by President Trump. This new tariff level placed Nigeria among about 40 countries ‘penalized’ for what Washington considered as having an “unbalanced” trade relationship with the U.S.
Sequel to the new tariff level, President Trump had threatened additional 10 per cent tariff on “any country aligning itself with the anti-American policies of BRICS.” This directly hit Nigeria which officially became the ninth partner country of the BRICS in January 2025, when Brazil announced the country’s formal admission. “There will be no exception to this policy,” Trump reportedly said.If/when implemented, this could raise Nigeria’s tariff on exports to the U.S. to 25 per cent. Nigeria’s main exports to the U.S. include crude petroleum, petroleum gas, and nitrogenous fertilizer, while key imports from the U.S. include wheat, refined petroleum, and vehicles. So, in the emerging scenario, Nigeria’s non-oil exports, valued at over N323.96 billion in 2024, are now at risk, including fertilizers, urea, and agricultural goods like flour and nuts.However, whether these punitive tariffs fully play out or not, what has become obvious is that Nigeria has come under President Trump’s telescopic lens, as unfolding events in recent times show. In the twilight of 2025, the U.S. President designated Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern (CPC),” and threatened to militarily intervene in the country. He quickly made good this threat on December 25, 2025, when U.S. military airstrikes hit Sokoto, northwest of Nigeria.
Although Nigerian officials claimed that the airstrikes were with the approval of the Federal Government, Washington’s next line of action are yet unknown. However, Trump’s ‘body language’ and military actions in Venezuela at the dawn of the year (2026) have become a shocker to the rest of the world. The U.S. army not only successfully ‘picked’ out the Venezuelan President, Nicolas Maduro and his wife, but promptly ferried them to Washington for trial.For Nigeria, given that its security challenges are multifaceted and deep-rooted, it is not unlikely that Trump could come back with more airstrikes or some other stratagem. Already, in what looks like a ‘fiat’, President Trump has demanded about 30 to 50 million barrels (per day?) of Venezuelan crude oil must be shipped to the U.S. under his direct watch. This development has set tongues wagging across the globe, with many alleging that Trump’s military intervention in Venezuela was driven by economic motives. Howbeit, given the U.S. interest in determining the price of crude oil in the global market, President Trump’s footprints in Venezuela and other jurisdictions, have the capacity to dampen the price of the commodity in the short-to-medium term. Analysts are already projecting that rather than stay above US$60 per barrel, crude oil, for the better part of the year, would sell at around US$50 per barrel owing to a number of geopolitical issues around the world. The price has already gone below US$60 per barrel.
This likelihood of oil prices dropping to around US$50 per barrel puts Nigeria’s 2026 N58.18 trillion budget under threat, as the Appropriation Bill is based on an assumed oil price of US$64.85 per barrel. This will translate to more revenue shortfall, budget deficit, and more borrowing from local and foreign financial markets; a trend that has been pushing Nigeria into debt trap.Since Nigeria has come under Trump’s searchlight, and is already designated a CPC, in the emerging NWEO, the most populous black country in the world could be made to suffer vicariously for its socio-economic and political alliances. One of such alliances is Nigeria’s identification with the BRICS which is championing de-dollarization. To Washington, any country identifying with the whittling down of the U.S. dollar hegemony is regarded and treated as an enemy of the U.S.Although Nigeria is a mere marginal member (indeed, ordinary partner) of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) economic bloc, it has become one of the most vulnerable to the manipulations of Washington. At present, unfortunately, Nigeria is not even yet a bona fide member of the BRICS; it became a partner country only on January 17, 2025. As a partner country, Nigeria has no voting right in the BRICS.However, given recent developments, Nigeria, unwittingly is already tied to the apron strings of the U.S. Given the recent airstrikes in Nigeria by the U.S. military, and the Venezuela example, who knows what next President Trump would decide to do with Nigeria that he has described as a “disgraced country.” Nigeria does not even have the option to clutch onto the G-20 as its allies. It is not a member either.
When last Nigeria attended the G-20 meeting in 2023 in India, it was only as a guest to the Prime Minister of the country. G-20 is an economic bloc made up of major economies in the world, including the U.S., China, Russia, Italy, India, etc. with South Africa as the only African country-member. Therefore, in the emerging New World Economic Order (NWEO), Nigeria is practically ‘floating’—completely vulnerable to a multitude of headwinds.
Since classifying Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC), Washington has been putting some measures in place that seem to be ‘hardening’ relationship between both countries. For instance, the U.S. has introduced new visa restrictions that will require Nigerians applying for business and tourism visas to post a bond of up to US$15.000 (about N22 million). Normally, visa bonds are required for certain foreign nationals from countries classified by the U.S. as high-risk. So, Nigeria is now high-risk to the U.S.
The bond serves as a guarantee that visa holders will comply with the terms of their stay, and depart the United States before their authorized period expires. This new visa requirement which takes effect January 21, 2026, affects about 40 countries, of which 24 are in Africa, including Nigeria.While this restriction is constricting the space for Nigerians’ entry into the U.S., some other hitherto friendly and accommodating countries are also ‘shutting’ their doors against Nigerians. Indeed, not a few countries, including the United States are deporting Nigerians in large numbers. One of such hitherto friendly nations, Canada, deported 366 Nigerians during the first ten months of 2025. Canada’s official data also show that 974 Nigerians “are currently in the removal in progress inventory”, awaiting deportation from the country.
Within the African continent (African Union) and the West African sub-region (ECOWAS), many Nigerians are being deported under xenophobic sentiments. From South Africa, from Libya, Ethiopia, Sudan, among others, many Nigerians are being ‘forced’ home. Nigeria’s neighboring countries of the Sahel Region, who used to be the allies of France, have of recent began to fraternize with China or Russia—opting to create frosty relationship with Nigeria.
Apparently ‘lonely’, Nigeria chose to turn to France for a new alliance; a development that annoys to no end, most of the Francophone former colonies of France in West Africa. Belonging to neither the BRICS nor the G-20, Nigeria seems to be holding tightly onto France: a relationship that is now manifesting in some economic ties. France Tax Agency recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with its Nigerian counterpart for the administration of Nigeria’s new tax regime, effective January 1, 2026.
This MOU has generated so much public criticism and revulsion among Nigerians, owing to the suspicion that the French tax expertise about to be applied in Nigeria could be counterproductive to Nigeria’s economic interest. Most Nigerians are even yet to come to terms with deploying a French system in the country’s public finance and fiscal ecosystem. But, it could be inferred that the burgeoning alliance between Nigeria and France is a manifestation of the emerging NWEO. One can only add that Nigeria should be ready for not a few headwinds!
The author, Okeke, a practicing Economist, Business Strategist, Sustainability expert and ex-Chief Economist of Zenith Bank Plc, lives in Lekki, Lagos. He can be reached via: obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com (08033075697) SMS only
