Only two airports out of 33 airports are profitable in Nigeria.
This was declared by the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, in his presentation during the May edition of the LBS Breakfast.
Rewane also said only three airports are responsible for handling 92 per cent of air traffic in Nigeria.
The title of his presentation was “100 Days of Chaos or Genius: What a Difference 100 Days Can Make,” IN WHICH HE SAID THAT THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF President Trump’s second term was characterized by tumble, rumble and crumble.
He said: “Markets tumbled, losing 5-9 per cent; Investments and portfolios crumbled; global trade crumbled; the US economy (GDP growth) went from 2.4 per cent to -0.3 per cent.
“If there is one more quarter of negative growth, the world’s largest economy will be officially in recession.”
But commenting on the Nigerian aviation sector, Rewane said that Nigeria has 33 airports, 13 airstrips, four military airfields, and 128 helipads.
“However, only 3 airports handle 92 per cent of all traffic and only two airports are profitable.
“Between 2017 –2019, Katsina Airport earned ₦250.8 million, spent ₦1.58billion; Ibadan Airport earned ₦349.2 million, spent ₦1.39 billion; Calabar Airport earned ₦540.8 million, spent ₦2.5 billion.”
He declared that “many airports are financially unsustainable, necessitating their concession.”
Rewane projected that not concessioning plus further FX depreciation will cause airfares to surge further while passenger traffic would continue to decline.
The outlook, according to him, is that “airports stay inefficient and underfunded” resulting in “more flight cancellations and reduced frequencies” and weakening in the sector’s stability.
He, however, projected that concessioning plus Naira appreciation would ease the airfares slightly, attract more investments to the airports attract investment and enhance infrastructure and service quality.
Rewane added that airlines would benefit from better ground support and turnaround times amidst passenger volumes recovery as “profitability and growth outlook strengthen turnaround times.”
He also defined fiscal breakeven as the crude oil price at which oil revenue is equal to government spending, pointing out that “Nigeria’s fiscal breakeven is $60pb.”
Rewane said that oil price below $50pb means fiscal pressure that would expand the country’s fiscal deficit between 6.0 and 7.0 per cent and that the Naira would weaken to N1,800/$ and N1,900/$.
He also highlighted that oil price that is between $50pb and $60pb would also amount to fiscal pressure with fiscal deficit expanding to 4.0 and 5.0 per cent, which would see the Naira weaken to N1,700/$ and N1,800/$.
But oil price between $75pb and $80pb will be a fiscal consolidation and a return to status quo.
Rewane also stated that Nigeria’s ability to meet its oil revenue targets is concerning as oil production declined by 4.76 per cent to 1.4mbpd in March 2025.
“Revenue target: N36.35 trillion, with 56% per cent expected from oil sales (₦20.36 trillion). However, actual production is below the budget benchmark by over 300,000 bpd.
“Global oil prices also fell sharply, trading slightly above $60pb in May 2025. So, Nigeria’s ability to meet its oil revenue targets is concerning,” Rewane said.
He also said that the future path of the Naira remained uncertain, adding that the drivers of exchange volatility are demand-supply imbalance, speculative activities, government payments and fiscal pressures and structural FX market issues.