By Celestine Mel
If there were still flickers of uncertainty about the direction of Akwa Ibom’s political future, they were extinguished yesterday. At the Oruk Anam–Ukanafun Town Square outing, Governor Umo Eno did more than address a crowd, he launched a message, cloaked in the analogy of a passnger who missed his flight. The signal was clear: the machinery of state is shifting, unapologetically, toward the All Progressives Congress (APC).
This is not just a realignment. It is an earthquake. For 26 years, Akwa Ibom stood firm with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), a political fortress since the return of democracy in 1999. The state became synonymous with the PDP’s identity, hosting some of its fiercest loyalists and serving as one of its most stable strongholds. But politics, like history, is driven by momentum, and the tide has turned.
So why would a sitting governor, enjoying unprecedented popularity and commanding the full structure of his party, jump into the arms of a rival party battling internal disarray? Why would he walk away from a structure he controls absolutely; from a known to the unknown? The answer is simple: *strategy, not sentiment, is the lifeblood of power.*
Akwa Ibom is not just another state, it is a bride courted by all, a swing factor. With 2027 on the horizon, Abuja is teeming with ambition. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Senate President Godswill Akpabio—Akwa Ibom’s own—and the northern establishment are all recalibrating for the next transition. In Nigeria’s patronage democracy, proximity to power is more than symbolism. It is survival. According to Napoleon Bonaparte, “in politics, stupidity is a handicap,” and Governor Eno has wisely chosen not to be caught flat-footed.
Akpabio’s current role offers rare leverage. He is not just any Senate President, he is the most influential Akwa Ibomite in the national political grid since independence. It is strategic suicide for our state to remain on the sidelines of federal power when one of our own holds a lever. As Sun Tzu put it: “opportunities multiply as they are seized.”
But this is also the story of a once-dominant PDP that became the architect of its own collapse.
In 2011, PDP disrupted the zoning equilibrium by allowing President Goodluck Jonathan to seek election after President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s unfortunate death. The North had barely done two years. Some of us warned then, that the move may return to haunt the PDP in the future. But, they were too engrossed in the now, to listen.
By 2015, feeling shortchanged, the north returned in alliance with the South-West to deliver President Buhari. Sadly, the PDP repeated the same strategic misstep it made in 2023 by fielding Atiku Abubakar, at a time when power was expected to return to the South. The result? Tinubu emerged victorious, albeit with more goodwill from the North than the South.
This isn’t just a numbers game. It is about honouring unwritten codes that stabilize our fragile democracy. PDP failed to read the room. Now it’s paying the price.
For the North, 2027 is the hour of reckoning. By then, the South would have held the presidency for 18 years, compared to the North’s 10. Northern political calculus suggests Tinubu can be unseated, ironically, by the same forces that enthroned him. This is not conjecture. It is the whispered consensus in power corridors up north.
This puts Akwa Ibom, Delta, Edo, Abia and indeed, all the states in southern Nigerian squarely on the APC’s snipper’s cross-hairs, for survival. Akwa Ibom, by virtue of its size, voting strength, and geostrategic location, becomes a critical chess piece in this high-stakes game. Pastor Umo Eno, not being a pushover politician who is arguably the most popular governor in the state’s history, is reading the room correctly and making the wise choice. Yes, Abuja needs him more than he needs Abuja but there is plenty of gain in that regard.
To get to the desination however, the road ahead which is riddled with landmines, must be travelled.
First, the local chapter of the APC is a powder keg. Most of its leaders who themselves defected from the PDP still carry bruised egos and jagged loyalties. From Senator Ita Enang to Obong Umana Umana, the party in Akwa Ibom has long been more battlefield than political base. The influx of Pastor Eno and his supporters could trigger a fresh internal implosion. Is The Senate President willing to yield some ground? I hope he is. I pray he does.
Second, there are the PDP purists like Hon. Onofiok Luke and Barr. Emmanuel Enoidem SAN, who may resist defection on principle. It means that their relationship with the governor may be strained proportional to the speed of this move. How will the golden boy manage that?
Next, there are grassroots loyalists who built careers around attacking the APC and vilifying Senator Akpabio. To them, this pivot may feel like betrayal. But politics, as Winston Churchill reminded us, “is the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year, and then have the ability to explain why it didn’t happen.”
I hear that former Governor Udom Emmanuel, a key figure whose rivalry with Akpabio has been both personal and political, now appears within reach of reconciliation. A recent multi-stakeholder visit to the Presidential Villa, reportedly orchestrated by President Tinubu himself, facilitated some thaw between the two estranged allies. The time for grievances may be over; the time for unity may just be now. Just, may be. I see it soon.
Make no mistake: this transition will not be painless. But governance must be judged by outcomes, not party logos. If this shift secures federal appointments, projects, and influence for Akwa Ibom, then history will not record it as betrayal, but as vision. In the words of Napoleon Bonarparte, “a leader is a dealer in hope”.
Ultimately, Pastor Umo Eno is dealing a hand now, with a clear focus on gaining the most benefits for the growth and development of our State and its people. Politics which is the art of the possible needs strategy, not sentiment, to win the day. In making this move, Pastor Umo Eno has proven that leadership is not about standing still—it is about stepping forward.
Akwa Ibom must now fasten its seatbelt. The aircraft is ready for ascent, in a different direction.
Yes, we can.
Mel is a chartered banker and projects lead. He writes from the FCT.
