Umar Damagun is daydreaming

By ETIM ETIM

Two PDP members from Akwa Ibom State – Onofiok Luke and Ini Ememobong – visited the party’s Acting National Chairman, Umar Damagun, in his office in Abuja on Tuesday and the event grabbed a few headlines in the politics pages of some publications. Damagum told the visitors that that PDP would win the governorship and other elections in the Akwa Ibom State. He said many ‘’credible’’ PDP stalwarts who did not defect with Gov. Umo Eno are still very active in the party.PDP Youth Leader, Muhammed Suleiman and National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba were also present during the visit. But back in Akwa Ibom, the visit was hardly mentioned beyond the Facebook pages of the Luke and Ememobong. This is because every important PDP member in the state has moved into APC with Gov. Eno. These include all the 31 LGA chairmen and their councilors; 24 of the 26 House of Assembly members and the two senators. In addition, all of the governor’s commissioners and other political appointees, as well as other stalwarts who did not even hold political positions had also defected with the governor. The two gentlemen who visited Damagun on Tuesday are probably the most lonesome politicians in the state.

So, what was the basis of Damagun’s optimism? It’s possible that both Luke and Ememobong might have given him a wrong impression of what happened in Akwa Ibom and what has become of the PDP. I can imagine them telling Damagun: ‘’PDP is still very strong; we are present in every ward…we shall capture the state in 2027, and blah; blah; blah’’. It’s all a hoax. Hyperboles; exuberances and deceptions are important ingredients of Nigerian politics. About two months since the governor left, PDP is virtually dead in the state. There has been no activity in the PDP since Umo Eno left. Its secretariat, hitherto a busy arena, looks desolate and deserted. Worst of all, no visible arrowhead or a person of considerable political clout with adequate financial resources that can galvanize and lead the party has emerged. The party has not called a stakeholders’ meeting to take stock and plot the way forward. There is nobody to take charge! In Akwa Ibom, any political party that does not have at least one formidable financier is no better than the Boys Scout movement.

ALSO READ Furious debates in the House of Reps over insecurity

I have been involved in all the governorship elections in Akwa Ibom State since 2015. In late 2014, Obong Umana Okon Umana decamped from the PDP to APC to pick up the governorship ticket. Conservative estimates have it that Umana spent around N10 billion from between when he defected till the conclusion of post-election litigations. Obong Nsima Ekere, the APC governorship candidate in the 2019 elections, spent well above that. Mind you, these expenses are not limited to election matters alone. In Akwa Ibom State, the party leader is responsible for the welfare and wellbeing of his supporters. You pay house rents; children’s school fees; food bills and hospital bills of your supporters. In addition, you have to buy cars for, and pay salaries to your key supporters and in addition, provide buses for other party members. As a party leader, you have to go around with police escorts to cut an image of a serious politician. In addition, you have to provide food and assorted drinks in your home at all hours for visitors, hangers-on and stragglers. There is nobody in Akwa Ibom PDP who has the capacity; willingness and courage to incur such expenditures in this season.

ALSO READ Courting the General: Why Kaduna is now the road to 2027

Now, let’s look at the statistics. In the 2023 elections, Umo Eno of PDP polled 354, 348 votes; Bassey Albert (YPP) scored 136, 262 and Akanimo Udofia (APC) got 129, 60; John James Akpanudoedehe (NNPP) polled 12, 509 and Uduak Udoh of Labour Party got 4, 746. Umo Eno won in 29 of the 31 LGAs while Bassey Albert won in two. In 2019, Udom Emmanuel (PDP) got 519, 712; Nsima Ekere (APC) 171, 978. All other candidates got less than a thousand votes. While Udom Emmanuel won in 30 LGA; Ekere won in only one LGA. There was no real election in the state in 2015. The results were written in Government House, Uyo under the supervision and direction of the then governor. This is why the governorship election of 2015 was cancelled by the Tribunal and the Court of Appeal.

In 2023, Eno scored 55% of the votes cast and in 2019; Udom Emmanuel got 75% of total votes cast. Given that PDP and YPP have collapsed into APC, making it quite formidable, and considering the overwhelming popularity of the governor, I predict that he will take no less than 80% of the votes in 2027. He would be aided by other tailwinds which could be summarized under the incumbency advantage. They include huge financial resources; redoubtable party henchmen in every nook and cranny of the state; enthusiasm of APC members to produce governor for the first time in history and the high job approval rating of the governor. There’s also the unbreakable zoning arrangement in the state. Akwa Ibom North West, the zone that will produce the next governor in 2031, will more likely vote for the incumbent than choose a new person who will likely stay for fresh eight years. This factor counted against Ekere in 2019.

ALSO READ ADC woos Jonathan as Mark, Atiku insist on primaries Isaac Samuel The race to the 2027 presidency took a dramatic turn this week as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) intensified efforts to lure former President Goodluck Jonathan into its fold. Jonathan, it was gathered is also taking decisive moves to reset opposition strategy and mount a formidable challenge against President Bola Tinubu. The former President held a closed-door meeting held in Abuja on Thursday with ADC National Chairman, Senator David Mark. Jonathan, who publicly met with politicians and party leaders for the first time since his rumoured bid to return to power, met the ADC stakeholders at the home of Mark. Seen in a viral video as he walked into the expansive residence of the former Senate President in Abuja, others with Mark were former Minister of Sports and ADC spokesperson, Malam Bolaji Abdullahi as well as a former National Publicity Secretary of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Mr. Kola Ologbondiyan, among others. Sources claimed the former president has begun consultations ahead of the 2027 polls following increasing pressure to get in the ring and ‘save’ the nation. But it was learnt that the former President's bid to return to Aso Rock on the platform of the opposition coalition may have hit an early stumbling block. At Thursday’s meeting, Mark was said to have told the former president in clear terms that the only path to the party’s presidential ticket was through the front door by formally joining the party and submitting himself to a transparent primary election. Unable to secure any guarantees, Jonathan and Mark agreed to meet again soon to review the situation. It was learnt that the ADC is moving to draft Jonathan into the race beccause he is seen as a compromise candidate, but his strong base used to be the South-East which is now the political fortress of Obi. But Jonathan is not alone in seeking assurances. Both former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, are also pressing the ADC leadership for firm commitments before they take the plunge. The party’s new leadership, however, has refused to make such promises, a development that explains why all three leading contenders are still holding back from declaring for the party. For them, early commitment without certainty could prove politically fatal. Aligning with the ADC and then losing its ticket could leave any of the trio stranded and without a viable political vehicle ahead of 2027. Obi has consistently insisted that power must remain in the South for equity, even pledging to serve a single term if elected. But his camp remains opposed to any vice-presidential offer, warning that such a move would be politically suicidal after his strong showing in 2023. For Atiku, who resigned from the PDP in July, the plan is to complete ongoing grassroots mobilisation before formally collecting his ADC membership card in Adamawa. While Atiku insists he is ready for an open primary, his increasing influence within ADC backed by significant political investments is fuelling fears that the presidential ticket may already be tilted in his favour. That dynamic, party figures say, could force Jonathan and Obi to reconsider their strategies. Meanwhile, the ADC leadership is trying to project unity. After a caucus meeting in Abuja attended by Mark, Atiku, former governors Nasir El-Rufai, Aminu Tambuwal and Rotimi Amaechi, the party directed all undecided members to resign from their existing parties. Peter Obi, a member of the coalition party, had yet to disclaim his membership of Labour Party (LP). Atiku is also yet to get his ADC membership even though he has resigned from PDP. National Publicity Secretary of ADC, Bolaji Abdullahi, disclosed the new directive while addressing journalists in Abuja, after a caucus meeting attended by top party leaders and political figures. Abdullahi said, “Though final order has been given to all members to resign membership of other political parties, the caucus was silent on the timeline.” The caucus also announced that all issues concerning African Democratic Association (ADA) had been concluded. According to Abdullahi, “The coalition has rested everything concerning the ADA. That means they are not interested in the registration or otherwise of the association.” On the 2027 presidential race, Abdullahi said ADC’s presidential aspirants had agreed to back whoever emerged winner of the primaries. “All the presidential aspirants have agreed to support whoever wins the primaries election,” he stated. The ADC spokesman further revealed that the party’s National Working Committee (NWC) would soon announce dates for primaries in Osun and Ekiti states ahead of the off-cycle governorship elections in both states. Those present at the meeting included National Chairman, David Mark; former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; National Secretary, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola; former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai; former Sokoto State Governor, Senator Aminu Tambuwal; and former Rivers State Governor, Chibuike Amaechi.

So, Umar Damagun was essentially daydreaming when he spoke of a possible PDP victory in Akwa Ibom. He was likely misled by his visitors. But I reckon that somebody in the PDP will want to challenge Gov. Eno in 2027. The person will not be looking to winning the election; rather, he would be more interested in the cash that the Party typically sends to governorship candidates from Abuja to support their campaigns. For such opportunistic contestant, a bird in hand is better than three in the bush.